从历史上看，当船龄达到25年时，约占总载重吨50%的散货船、油船和集装箱船就会被拆解，当船龄达到30-35年时，这一数字会上升到90%。根据波罗的海国际航运公会（BIMCO）的预测，按照以上的拆船市场规律，在2023-2032年期间将有15,000艘船舶被拆解（约合6亿载重吨），这比过去十年拆船量的两倍还要多。对此，BIMCO首席航运分析师Niels Rasmussen表示：“事实上，电弧炉熔炼钢铁所排放的温室气体远远少于粗钢生产，且伴随着电网的脱碳，温室气体排放量还将进一步减少。”因此，拆船能够持续在循环经济中发挥关键作用。在过去10年中，共计有7,780艘（约2.85亿载重吨）的船舶被拆解，其中60%的船舶是二十世纪九十年代建造的。预计在接下来的十年中，二十一世纪首个十年间建造的船舶将成为主要的拆解对象。

Historically about 50% of bulk, tanker, and container deadweight capacity has been recycled by the time the ships would have been 25 years old and 90% by 30-35 years old. If we apply this recycling pattern to the currently trading ships, we estimate that 15,000 ships and 600 million deadweight tonnes will be recycled between 2023 and 2032,more than twice the amount recycled in the previous ten years. “In fact, recycling steel in electric arc furnaces emits significantly less greenhouse gases than the production of crude steel, and as the electricity grid becomes decarbonized emissions will reduce further. Therefore, ship recycling can continue to play a key role in the circular economy,” says Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO. Over the past 10 years, 7,780 ships with a deadweight capacity of 285 million tonnes were recycled. Most of the deadweight capacity recycled (60%) was built during the 1990s. In the next ten years, ships built during the 2000s will be the main source of recycling.